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Orioles in 1st place


oldbird

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    • Opportunity Cost and the importance of dry powder...  Also makes me wonder how Cease was valued...
    • I feel like plays like these have been a part of his entire tenure here. He has the speed but not the mental game. I expect him to be gone once Hays is ready.
    • The Orioles have gone 103 consecutive RS series without being swept, spanning 322 games including series of: 2 G: 8 times 3 G: 75 4 G: 19 5 G: 1 If the games were decided by coin flip, the odds of this occurring randomly would be approximately 1 in 785,670. In addition, the Orioles have now staved off a sweep in a regular-season series finale 13 times: 5/19/22 NYY 9-6 6/22/22 Was 7-0 7/3/22 Min 3-1 9/18/22 Tor 5-4 9/21/22 Det 8-1 5/28/23 Tex 3-2 6/8/23 Mil 6-3 6/18/23 ChC 6-3 7/2/23 Min 2-1 7/19/23 LAD 8-5 8/10/23 Hou 5-4 4/14/24 Mil 6-4 5/8/24 Was 7-6 It's amazing that they've gone 13-0 in such games, but it might be even more impressive (qualitatively, because the assumptions of defining a non-coin-flip model are truly daunting) that they've only gone to a win-or-be-swept finale 13 times when expectation by coin flip would be 25.1875.
    • The money is sunk at this point, but I don't think any polar answer is optimal here.  Bullpen by committee until someone emerges.  It's a little more difficult with the 3-batter rule, but that's how they need to roll and I credit Hyde for being ready with the quick hook for the last 10 days or so.
    • Great sequence in the 10th where Mateo singled, driving in Westburg, stole 2nd and went to 3rd on the overthrow.  Then Mateo scored on a wild pitch.  I've joined the Mateo fan club, at least as a utility player.  Having Mateo on base has to drive pitchers crazy.
    • As someone that was all for DFA’ing McKenna for Hicks last week, I really can’t fault him for tonight.   I’m impressed he stole the base. He sort of had to run there with two outs. He stole it. He just came off the bag. That happens.  The route may have not been the best because he was going to his left and as a RH thrower he was just trying to position himself to throw home. He doesn’t have Vlad Sr’s arm out there. That’s a .01% chance play there.  Our CF depth is pretty thin. I think the only way we DFA McKenna is if Hicks comes here. Kjerstad will be the one to go for Hays. Remember last August when at full strength/healthy Mullins, and only a 26 man roster, we rolled with a 4 man bench of McCann, Hicks, Mateo, Urias/Frazier/Westburg.  Oddly, we’re deep enough into the season, and CF depth is thin, that I’d say there’s a 50/50 shot McKenna doesn’t clear waivers. I don’t know we have the luxury of CF depth to DFA him w/o Hicks in the mix. 
    • I think they will DFA him. They already did it once. And the fact nobody claimed him means you’re probably right about not starting for other teams. 
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